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Measured coverage of this range at 30 days: 67% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-60d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2026-07-26","to":"2026-09-23","n":60},"indicators":{"from":"2025-08-20","to":"2026-09-23","n":400,"price":84382.399903566,"sma7":82401.83256099287,"sma30":79208.16147736832,"rsi14":65.4769487438164,"vol30_daily_pct":2.26,"chg7_pct":10.82,"chg30_pct":6.85,"mdd90_pct":-6.98},"fng":{"value":71,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-23"},"cycles":{"ma200d":70748.58,"mayer":1.193,"mayer_pct":68,"ma200w":65818.84,"vs_ma200w_pct":28.2,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-32.4,"days_since_ath":352,"underwater_days":352,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":789},"slope_per_day":0.00537,"r2":0.771,"sigma_daily":0.02265,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":67.1}},{"horizon":180,"target_date":"2027-03-22","low":56510,"mid":83374.11,"high":123009.06,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.57,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -0.93% per week (R²=0.57), damped with the horizon. 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Measured coverage of this range at 6 months: 57% of past forecasts.","inputs":{"method":"loglin-365d + vol-30d","backtest":false,"window":{"from":"2025-09-24","to":"2026-09-23","n":365},"indicators":{"from":"2025-08-20","to":"2026-09-23","n":400,"price":84382.399903566,"sma7":82401.83256099287,"sma30":79208.16147736832,"rsi14":65.4769487438164,"vol30_daily_pct":2.26,"chg7_pct":10.82,"chg30_pct":6.85,"mdd90_pct":-6.98},"fng":{"value":71,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-23"},"cycles":{"ma200d":70748.58,"mayer":1.193,"mayer_pct":68,"ma200w":65818.84,"vs_ma200w_pct":28.2,"ath":124739.81,"ath_d":"2025-10-06","vs_ath_pct":-32.4,"days_since_ath":352,"underwater_days":352,"longest_underwater":1176,"longest_underwater_end":"2017-02-22","weeks":789},"slope_per_day":-0.001341,"r2":0.57,"sigma_daily":0.02265,"drift_tau":60,"measured_coverage_pct":57.4}},{"horizon":365,"target_date":"2027-09-23","low":48444.54,"mid":84288.23,"high":146652.36,"direction":"flat","confidence":0.5,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 365 days: -0.93% per week (R²=0.57), damped with the horizon. Daily volatility of 2.26% gives a modelled range from -42.6% to +73.8% against the last close of $84,382 over 1 year. RSI14 = 65 (neutral). Price is above its 30-day SMA. Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed). 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With a 7-day daily log-return volatility of 3.15%, a moderate expansion of the trading range is expected.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"2392cbdc55569e7a","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-05-12","to":"2026-09-23","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-05-12","to":"2026-09-23","n":500,"price":2684.3428714906,"sma7":2649.5119990797716,"sma30":2509.3144036373697,"rsi14":63.30139711247097,"vol30_daily_pct":2.46,"chg7_pct":11.11,"chg30_pct":8.16,"mdd90_pct":-5.49},"fng":{"value":71,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-23","avg7":66.7,"avg7_d":"2026-09-23","pct":74},"cycles":{"ma200d":2091.9,"mayer":1.283,"mayer_pct":85.5,"ma200w":2523.08,"vs_ma200w_pct":6.4,"ath":4817.76,"ath_d":"2025-08-22","vs_ath_pct":-44.3,"days_since_ath":397,"underwater_days":397,"longest_underwater":1382,"longest_underwater_end":"2025-08-21","weeks":551},"deriv":{"oi_days":87,"d":"2026-09-23","funding_last":6.1123333333333e-5,"funding_avg7":6.712e-5,"oi_last":2310500.28,"oi_chg7_pct":-0.2},"vols":{"7":3.15,"14":2.92,"30":2.46,"90":2.81},"rv":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":64.5,"pct":40.2,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":90.9,"min":45.8,"max":143.5,"n":3486,"full":93.4,"from":"2017-03-09"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":51.56,"pct":13.2,"median":64.12,"min":46.1,"max":95.78,"n":429,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":47,"spread":4.6},"index":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":62.5,"zone":"warm"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-09-23","avg7":0.0067,"annual":7.3,"pct":63.6,"median":0.0069,"n":2490,"from":"2019-11-30"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":0.031812,"pct":36.9,"median":0.037183,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3851,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":27.4,"median":0.040624,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077827,"from":"2022-09-25"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.0246,"reference_half_width_pct":8.69,"width_vs_reference":0.993,"direction_model":"up"}},{"horizon":30,"target_date":"2026-10-23","low":2250,"mid":2750,"high":3250,"direction":"up","confidence":0.65,"rationale":"Over a 30-day horizon, the Mayer Multiple of 1.283 and a warm Hodlometer Index of 62.5 suggest a continuation of the broader upward trend. The options-implied 30-day volatility of 51.56 indicates expectations of moderate price fluctuations, supporting a wider range.","inputs":{"method":"gemini","prompt_version":4,"prompt_sha":"2392cbdc55569e7a","horizons":[7,30],"window":{"from":"2025-05-12","to":"2026-09-23","n":500},"indicators":{"from":"2025-05-12","to":"2026-09-23","n":500,"price":2684.3428714906,"sma7":2649.5119990797716,"sma30":2509.3144036373697,"rsi14":63.30139711247097,"vol30_daily_pct":2.46,"chg7_pct":11.11,"chg30_pct":8.16,"mdd90_pct":-5.49},"fng":{"value":71,"label":"Greed","d":"2026-09-23","avg7":66.7,"avg7_d":"2026-09-23","pct":74},"cycles":{"ma200d":2091.9,"mayer":1.283,"mayer_pct":85.5,"ma200w":2523.08,"vs_ma200w_pct":6.4,"ath":4817.76,"ath_d":"2025-08-22","vs_ath_pct":-44.3,"days_since_ath":397,"underwater_days":397,"longest_underwater":1382,"longest_underwater_end":"2025-08-21","weeks":551},"deriv":{"oi_days":87,"d":"2026-09-23","funding_last":6.1123333333333e-5,"funding_avg7":6.712e-5,"oi_last":2310500.28,"oi_chg7_pct":-0.2},"vols":{"7":3.15,"14":2.92,"30":2.46,"90":2.81},"rv":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":64.5,"pct":40.2,"window":365,"pct_window":1460,"median":90.9,"min":45.8,"max":143.5,"n":3486,"full":93.4,"from":"2017-03-09"},"dvol":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":51.56,"pct":13.2,"median":64.12,"min":46.1,"max":95.78,"n":429,"from":"2025-07-22","realised30":47,"spread":4.6},"index":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":62.5,"zone":"warm"},"funding_ctx":{"d":"2026-09-23","avg7":0.0067,"annual":7.3,"pct":63.6,"median":0.0069,"n":2490,"from":"2019-11-30"},"eth_btc":{"d":"2026-09-23","value":0.031812,"pct":36.9,"median":0.037183,"min":0.007739,"max":0.145066,"n":3851,"from":"2016-03-09","win":{"days":1460,"n":1460,"pct":27.4,"median":0.040624,"min":0.018049,"max":0.077827,"from":"2022-09-25"},"chg30_pct":null},"sigma_daily":0.0246,"reference_half_width_pct":18.82,"width_vs_reference":1.066,"direction_model":"up"}}]},{"source":"statistical","model":"loglin-60d","base_date":"2026-09-23","created_at":"2026-09-24 03:10:10","items":[{"horizon":7,"target_date":"2026-09-30","low":2582.08,"mid":2806.4,"high":3050.2,"direction":"up","confidence":0.76,"rationale":"Log-linear trend over 60 days: +5.12% per week (R²=0.80), damped with the horizon. 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